THE THIRD WORLD WAR NOW

THE THIRD WORLD WAR NOW
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You do not believe it of course, but in fact it is already triggered in the present Israeli Palestinian peace negotiations, and it is going to happen after five to ten years from now, and that is what I am going to prove in the next few pages titled as below.
• The Israeli Palestinian strategic situation.
• The alternative options after the failure of the negotiations.
• The third world war.

THE ISRAELI PALESTINIAN STRATEGIC SITUATION

• In 1948 the Palestinians were helpless unarmed peasants facing the well trained and organized Israeli fighters who were experienced in two world wars.
• In 1967 the Palestinians in the West Bank were still helpless unarmed peasants under the Jordanian rule and the protection of the Jordanian army, and they were still the same under the Israeli occupation afterwards.
• The Palestinians in the West Bank today are not peasants any more, but very well trained and organized fighters.
• If we have a look at the following map we can clearly notice some facts,

• The maximum distance between the West Bank Jordanian borders and the Mediterranean Sea is about 100Kms.
• The distance between Jerusalem and the sea is about 60Kms, between Al khalil and the sea is about 50Kms.
• The width of Israeli territories in most places alongside the west bank is 30Kms or less.
• The Israeli borders with the West Bank are about 250Kms, and the West Bank borders with Jordan are about 125Kms.

THE LIMITS OF THE ISRAELI POWER
• Israel can never use nuclear or mass destruction weapons against the West Bank because it will affect the Israeli population as well as the Palestinians.
• Tanks are very efficient in open field battles but they are helpless in city streets fighting, they can be easily trapped and destroyed.
• Air forces are very effective of course but not in case of ground engagements between forces especially in cities and populated areas.
THE LIMITS OF PALESTINIAN POWER
If the Palestinians decide to launch a liberation war against Israel, using infantry weapons like machine guns, hand grenades, mortar guns,RBJ , katiosha missiles and explosives ,which they already have ,supported by Arabic countries financially and logistically they can reach most of the Israeli populated areas from the hills of the West Bank.
The Israeli settlements will be certainly in range, those settlements can never be defended and the settlers will be hostages in the hands of the Palestinians.

The Israeli army can never control the West Bank even by reoccupying it
And it will be an endless bloodshed in both sides.

HOW CAN THE PEACE NEGOTIATIONS BE SUCCESSFUL

I KNOW THAT MR. NATHANIAHO IS A GOOD SOLDIER AS WELL AS MR. ABBAS , I HOPE THAT THEY ACT AS GOOD SOLDIERS NOT AS POLITICIANS OR AS TALKING MACHINES LIKE THE LEADERS OF HAMAS AND THE JEWISH RELIGIOUS PARTIES, AND PUT AN END TO THAT MISERABLE SITUATION.

I HOPE THAT THEY KEEP IN MIND THAT RELIGION BOOKS ARE NOT RECOGNIZED AS HISTORY BOOKS OR AS LEGITIMATE DOCUMENTS IN FRONT OF THE INTERNATIONAL LAW AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, AND THEY HAVE NO PLACE IN POLITICS.

I BELIEVE THAT THE PALESTINIAN STATE SHOULD BE WITHOUT AN ARMY ,IT WILL NEVER BE AS POWERFUL AS THE ISRAELI ARMY OR ANY OTHER ARMY IN THE AREA ,AND IT IS NOT NEEDED ,THE SOVEREIGNTY AND BORDERS CAN BE GUARANTEED BY PEACE AGREEMENT ,BY THE SUPER POWERS AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY , LIKE MANY OTHER INDEPENDENT COUNTRIES ,THE STATE OF MALTA IS A GOOD EXAMPLE ,AND THE ARMY WILL BE JUST A BURDEN FOR SUCH SMALL STATE.
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THE ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS AFTER THE FAILURE OF NEGOTIATIONS

The following scenario is just from my imagination it is true that is based on facts but I sincerely hope that I am wrong.

When Saddam Husin in Iraq started to build a nuclear reactor, Israel did not hesitate before attacking and destroying it.
When Syria started to build a nuclear reactor Israel did the same.
However after the Iranian regime threatened of wiping Israel from the map ,Israel and the USA are still hesitating for years until the reactor is build ,the uranium is enriched and the ballistic missiles developed to more than 3000Kms to reach Israel , many European countries And Moscow ,and they still hesitating.

When the Palestinians attacked north Israel in the eighties of last century, Israel invaded Lebanon all the way to Beirut Until the PLO fighters were evacuated from Lebanon.

When Hamas attacked south Israel, the whole Gaza was destroyed.

But when Hezbollah attacked north Israel, instead of sending the Israeli army to destroy Hezbollah forces and bases in south Lebanon, they sent their air forces to destroy the Lebanese cities in the north and leave Hezbollah more powerful than before.

Now, here is the big question mark, why?

The scenario I imagine is that there could be a secret Israeli plans and secret agreement between Israel, USA, Iran, Syria and Turkey.

They will allow Iran to have nuclear weapons and long range ballistic missiles to threaten Europe and under that threat Iran will occupy Kuwait, Emirates and Qatar, putting the whole area in mess and depriving Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinians from any Arabic financial support that can make them able to face Israel In any war or armed confrontation ,then Israel will be able to evacuate the Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza to Egypt and Jordan .

Turkey and Syria join the new Iranian empire, Syria can occupy Lebanon and Turkey occupy all Cyprus to retaliate from the European Union which will never accept it and to find new economic and political potentials in the middle east instead , may be to get rid of the Kurds too by evacuating them to Iraq which will join the Iranian empire after its Shiite take over the power by the help of Iran.

It sounds crazy and I hope so, but how can that lead to the third world war?



THE THIRD WORLD WAR

If that crazy scenario happened the public opinion in the European Union will never forgive USA for risking their security, whatever the USA defense systems deployed in the EU countries it can not guarantee their safety while the USA is far away from any danger.
The EU will withdraw from NATO; substitute USA by Russia which will join the EU.

Te huge EU economic resources added to the Russian natural resources will create a new superpower much bigger than USA , putting USA in isolation ,that will cause big depression inUSA economy which will lead to the third world war.

Nuclear weapons will never be used in that war, it will be destructive to all the parts, tactic laser and neutron weapons will be available besides electronic war technology and traditional weapons, and God help us all.



OMAR KAMEL NEGM
Member of Egypt Writers Union
4-9 -2010